By TERRY WEST
THE latest El Nino report has it steadily declining and we should see a return to a neutral pattern during late autumn to early winter.
The ocean temperatures are staying above average around the continent and warmer waters are likely to reinforce above average temperatures in coastal regions an hinterland parts, including the Southern Downs and Granite Belt.
Soil moisture is low across eastern parts of Australia, particularly in the drought-affected regions and this means there is less evaporative cooling, contributing towards warmer conditions inland and little rain.
These conditions will lead to a drier than average April with only a 40 per cent chance of exceeding the average.
No significant rain is in sight and it looks like most of the next month will have minimal rainfall, leaving drought affected areas dry as we go into winter.
The current outlook reflects a combination of very warm Indian Ocean temperatures, a weakening El Nino, and warm sea surface temperatures surrounding much of Australia leading to a warm, dry start to winter.
The Southern Downs and Granite Belt may see some rain as cold front events are now expected about
14 April to 18 April, 28 April to 2 May and 5 May to 9 May.
