By TERRY WEST
THE 2015-’16 El Nino is coming to an end, with recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere.
The climate model outlooks suggests the likelihood of La Nina forming later in 2016 is around 50 per cent and this may give us some rain later in the year, but not now.
La Nina is often, but not always, associated with above-average
winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia but I am not confident this is significant rainfall for the south-east corner of Queensland including the Southern Downs and Granite Belt.
May to July rainfall is likely to be above average across most of
mainland Australia Except the south-east of Queensland.
Widespread rain is expected around 20 May to 24 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 4 June to 8 June, with one rainfall event from the north around 9 June to 13 June.
May daytime and night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than the average for south-east Queensland, with minimal sub-zero temperatures expected this month. It is unusually warm for our region at this time of the year and there is no indication that this will change.
While large, intense lows are forming in the bight, and that is what pushes the cold air over us usually, this year we have a series of highs forming over our region and this is pushing the cold air and moisture back toward NSW and away from us.
In summary, we can expect a drier then normal start to winter with minimal sub-zero mornings and little frost.
