TransGrid published the Annual Planning Report 2012 late last week, which includes peak electricity demand forecasts for the Far North NSW’s major electricity distribution points, including Tenterfield and Lismore.
Executive general manager of network planning and performance, Stephen Clark, said, although there had been a long-term trend of high peak demand growth in the region, volatility of peak demand in recent years had prompted reduced demand growth forecasts in this year’s Annual Planning Report.
“While it is difficult to determine the exact drivers of the recent volatility in consumers’ peak electricity consumption, increasing power prices, global economic uncertainty, uptake in rooftop solar and mild summer weather could be some of the factors contributing to lower than expected peak demand,” Mr Clark said.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, summer 2011-12 was the coldest summer for NSW since 1983-1984.
“Based on the most recent forecasts, the earliest the delivery of the Far North Project would be required is winter 2016,” Mr Clark said.
“Depending on the reliability of electricity imports from Queensland via the coast (between Terranora and Mullumbimby), during peak periods, the project may be able to be deferred until winter 2022.
“TransGrid acknowledges changes to project timing cause a degree of uncertainty for the community, particularly those landholders who are affected by the project,” Mr Clark said.
“To help prevent uncertainty over an extended period, the most responsible action is to continue with the environmental approval process and easement compensation for the project,” he said.
“Should future peak demand forecasts bring forward the required project delivery date, an established easement would reduce project lead times and enable TransGrid to respond more rapidly to changing circumstances.
“TransGrid would like to reassure the community that we will not put the region’s electricity supply at risk. We will continue to monitor the electricity demand data for Far North NSW and the local distributor’s forecasts for future demand. TransGrid will regularly review the timing of the project as required.”
As part of the review process, TransGrid will continue to monitor summer and winter maximum demands; monitor the availability of electricity imports from Queensland via the coast; and work with local distributors and industry participants to identify opportunities to improve capacity of existing electricity infrastructure and availability of electricity imports where cost effective.
TransGrid has also undertaken to apply the Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission to the project. This would be undertaken as close as possible to the required delivery date, taking into account required Project lead times.
“TransGrid ensures all of its investments in the NSW transmission network are timely and cost effective. All of our network upgrades are delivered when they are necessary and not before,” Mr Clark said.
“This ensures the most efficient and cost effective investments are delivered for consumers when they are needed,” he said.
A key purpose of the Annual Planning Report is to provide information to businesses in the energy industry and interested parties on the location of emerging constraints in the NSW transmission network. These are the areas where network upgrades may be required in the future. The APR is also used to review required completion dates for TransGrid’s current and proposed projects across the state.
TransGrid’s 2012 Annual Planning Report is available at www.transgrid.com.au/network/np
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